69. Amanda Hsiao - China, US and Taiwan: A deep dive

Today, I spoke with Amanda Hsiao who is the Senior Analyst for China at the International Crisis Group. She joined me to shed some light on the increasing tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Amanda did this by tackling questions such as:

• What are key points of difference in the US and Chinese worldviews?
• Why are both sides intentionally elevating tensions?
• What has led to the current change in decades-long status quo?
• What is the importance of President Xi’s declaration of ‘reunification’ by 2049?
• Why is Taiwan so important to both China and the US?
• What do people in Taiwan want?
• What lessons is China drawing from the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Amanda’s work at Crisis Group focuses on conflicts in which China plays an important role, and developments in China’s foreign policy that relate to conflict prevention and resolution. As you will hear, it is understandable why she is a respected go-to voice on matters affecting China and the region. Some of the topics we covered are:

• Amanda’s journey into researching China
• Current state of affairs between China and the US
• Increased tension = better preparedness
• Narratives for domestic vs international audiences
• The role of history in China’s quest for ‘national rejuvenation’
• International laws, hypocrisy, and moral high ground
• The risk of a ‘hot’ war
• Language of ‘Reunification’ vs ‘unification’ with Taiwan
• Complexity surrounding Taiwan’s status
• Shifts in perceptions, especially the youth, in Taiwan
• The historical, cultural and strategic importance of Taiwan to China
• Lessons China is learning from Russian invasion of Ukraine
• Regional impact of growing tensions
• Current crisis management mechanisms and what else is needed
• Likelihood of Taiwan pursuing independence
• Relevance of Chinese demographics
• Assessment of risk of Chinese invasion of Taiwan

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